What does the Shell-ARC deal mean for Canada's energy sector?
Tom Savage, CFA - Portfolio Manager, Arbitrage
What are Q1 earnings telling us about the current market?
Jeff Bradacs, CFA – Co-Head Equity Strategies, Head of Portfolio Management & Trading
We are more than halfway through the first quarter earnings season for the S&P 500, and the results are running well ahead of expectations. Over 80% of companies are beating estimates, compared to the long-term average of 72%, with aggregate earnings growth tracking around 25%1.
Growth at this pace typically only follows a major reset, such as the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis, or the post-COVID-19 pandemic reopening. That the economy is producing it mid-cycle is notable. And unlike some rallies, this one has an earnings foundation beneath it: equities are pushing to new highs with double-digit gains year-to-date, even as some valuation multiples have compressed.
Leadership is clear: Technology, Energy, and Industrials are seeing the biggest upward revisions, reinforcing a cyclical and capital-expenditure-driven backdrop.
April made the story even harder to ignore. The Nasdaq Composite posted its best monthly performance since 2002, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index recorded its second-best month on record. The common thread running through both: artificial intelligence. The massive buildout of data centre infrastructure is generating real demand across technology, industrials, and the power complex; and that is increasingly where earnings momentum is concentrating.
The caveat worth watching: participation remains narrow, with only about a quarter of stocks outperforming the index. Breadth can lag leadership in powerful cycles, but it is a reminder that selectivity, not just market exposure, is doing most of the work right now.
Connect with the Author on LinkedIn
Meet Jeff BradacsTom Savage, CFA - Portfolio Manager, Arbitrage
Phil Mesman, CFA, Portfolio Manager, Co-Head Fixed Income
Rob Poole, CFA, Co-Head Equity Strategies, Head of Fundamental Equity Research
1 Source: Bloomberg Inc. and Picton Mahoney Asset Management Research as of May 4, 2026
DISCLOSURE
All data sourced from Picton Mahoney Asset Management Research unless otherwise cited.
This material has been provided as a general source of information, is subject to change without notification and should not be construed as investment advice. This material should not be relied upon for any investment decision and is not a recommendation, solicitation or offering of any security in any jurisdiction. The information contained in this material has been obtained from sources believed reliable, however, the accuracy and/or completeness of the information is not guaranteed by PICTON Investments, nor does PICTON Investments assume any responsibility or liability whatsoever. All investments involve risk and may lose value. This information is not intended to provide financial, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice specific to any person, and should not be relied upon in that regard. Tax, investment and all other decisions should be made, as appropriate, only with guidance from a qualified professional.
This material contains “forward-looking information” that is not purely historical in nature. These forward-looking statements are based upon the reasonable beliefs, expectations, estimates and projections of PICTON Investments as of the date they are made. PICTON Investments assumes no duty, and does not undertake, to update any forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, are subject to numerous assumptions, and involve inherent risks and uncertainties about general economic factors which change over time. There is no guarantee that any forward-looking statements will come to pass. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of important factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statement made.
Any review, re-transmission, dissemination or other use of this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited.
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns.
© 2026 Picton Mahoney Asset Management. All rights reserved.